AUD/USDWith support from the U.S. dollar (USDX +0.56%), the Australian currency became the day's top decliner (-0.69%, -61 points), as markets await today's expected Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut from 3.85% to 3.60%. The probability of such a cut is priced in at 90%. However, despite this and a nearly month-long sideways movement, the rate cut has not yet been fully priced in, as pressure on the Australian dollar has been coming from the commodities market.
On the daily chart, the price has moved below the balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator has entered negative territory, reinforcing the downward price vector. Nevertheless, considering the high probability of the rate cut, we do not expect a sharp price drop. We assume the price will consolidate within the 0.6394–0.6446 range, which served as a comfortable zone in April and May. A firm move below 0.6394 could open the way to March's 130-point range, with the lower boundary at 0.6262.
On the four-hour chart, the price is holding below the indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator has slightly corrected upward and is now poised to turn downward again—suggesting continued movement in negative territory.
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